In an interesting new poll, Catholic voters appear to be moving away from President Barack Obama and comprehensively favour Mormon Republican candidate Mitt Romney in a head-to-head contest against the incumbent president.

The Catholic News Agency gets into the nitty gritty:

[Rasmussen Reports's] national telephone survey, conducted Feb. 6-12 amid controversy over the federal contraception mandate, found that 59 percent of likely Catholic voters at least “somewhat disapprove” of the Obama presidency.

While 54 percent of Catholics voted for Obama in the 2008 election, only 35 percent of likely Catholic voters in Rasmussen’s latest poll said they were currently backing him in the 2012 race. Support for Mitt Romney among likely Catholic voters currently stands at 52 percent.

In total, Rasmussen found, Catholics who “strongly disapprove” of the president comprised 44 percent of the faith’s likely voters. They outnumbered, by more than two-to-one, those Catholics who say they “strongly approve” of the current presidency.

Catholic disapproval with the presidency, as of February 2012, is nearly 10 percent higher than in the general population. Among all likely voters, Rasmussen found that 49 percent disapproved, and 50 percent approved, of President Obama.

That is a major turnaround from 2008, and given the fact Catholics make up such a large chunk of the American population, a big swing away from Obama, especially if that’s realised in some of the key battleground states, could spell big trouble for the president.

Given the timing of the poll, when the controversy over the contraceptive mandate as part of Obama’s health care reforms was at its most prominent, it will be interesting to see if the numbers continue to trend this way or if Obama’s alleged compromise on the issue will stem the rot and Catholics will return to his camp.

It appears it was certainly on Catholics’ minds in this survey.

On Feb. 6-7, shortly before the president announced a controversial revision of his contraception mandate, 65 percent of likely Catholic voters told Rasmussen they disapproved of the administration’s bid to force religious employers to cover contraceptives and sterilization in their health plans.

Both versions of the contraception mandate have been rejected by the U.S. Catholic bishops’ conference as infringements on religious freedom.

The other important aspect of the poll is the support for Mitt Romney. Now, without seeing the source questions, I can’t say for sure, but it’s quite possible that, given the state of the race when the polling started, with Romney seemingly cruising towards the nomination, the survey simply pitted Obama and Romney head to head, without looking at the prospects of the other candidates. But it does suggest Catholics aren’t turned off by Romney’s Mormon faith, which has always been seen as a liability for him among Christians, many of whom consider Mormonism to be a cult.

Would Catholics, now that he has had a major surge in last week’s contests, be more supportive of fellow Catholic Rick Santorum than they are of Romney? He has certainly been winning over the hearts, minds and votes of Evangelicals, a very influential group in the Republican party. Catholics make up another major chunk, and could make a big difference in who ends up squaring off against Barack Obama.

And then, come November, the Catholics and Evangelicals could play a very big role in deciding who spends 2013-16 at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.